The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has secured an administrative stay on the underlying order in its case against Kalshi, leading to the prediction market halting its US election trading less than 24 hours after it went live. This development comes as crypto natives continue to take a keen interest in the US presidential elections, which analysts say could significantly impact Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
CFTC Secures Court Win In Case Against Kalshi
The CFTC secured a court win in its case against Kalshi following the court of appeals’ decision to administratively stay the district court’s order pending when they can sufficiently consider the Commission’s motion for a stay pending appeal. US District Judge Jia Cobb had earlier ruled in favor of Kalshi, declaring that the regulator had acted beyond its powers when it prevented the predictions market from listing election bets.
Following the ruling, the CFTC had asked Judge Cobb to prevent Kalshi from launching its election trading platform until she published her full opinion to help the Commission decide whether to appeal. However, the District judge denied the request, which led the regulator to file an emergency motion at the Court of Appeals for a stay of the order, seeing that Kalshi had launched its election markets.
The Court of Appeal’s decision to grant an administrative stay of Judge Cobb’s order ultimately led to Kalshi halting its trading market less than 24 hours after it went live. The appeal court noted that its ruling was not on the merits of the motion. It further ordered Kalshi to file a response to the emergency motion to help the court decide whether to stay the order until the appeal is done.
In a letter addressed to the court in which Kalshi opposed the emergency motion, the platform had made it clear that it was prepared to swiftly respond if the administrative stay was granted to ensure that the court rules by September 16 or as soon as possible.
The Significance Of These Prediction Markets
The CFTC’s case against Kalshi is notable as prediction markets have become significant in the crypto community ahead of the US elections in November. Crypto natives use the sentiments among bettors to determine the likely winner at the polls between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Crypto has also become a major topic ahead of the elections, with Trump publicly declaring his support for Bitcoin while Harris remains tight-lipped about where she stands.
In line with this, analysts have continued to make Bitcoin price predictions based on who emerges as the next US president. Bernstein analysts predicted that the BTC price would reach $90,000 if Trump wins, while the leading crypto could drop to as low as $30,000 if Harris wins.
The latest Polymarket data shows that Harris has a 50% chance of becoming the next president while Trump has a 49% chance.
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