Ripple (XRP) price has been consolidating for four weeks since hitting 2024 high of $2.90 on December 3. But this retracement and rangebound movement is reminiscent of the 2017 consolidation. If history repeats then XRP price could hit $20 in before January 31, 2025, and how Ripple ETF affects the short-term outlook.
Can XRP Price Hit $20 Before January 31?
In the second quarter of 2017, XRP price rose 1,200% and slipped into consolidation for the next 24 days. This price action is similar to what’s happening now. Ripple bulls triggered a 600% rally, which was followed by a 28-day consolidation that ended with a 12% rally on January 1. Due to the similarity of these moves, one can assume that even if history rhymes, it could lead to another parabolic ascent for XRP token. The chart below shows that Ripple price repeats 2017’s move, it could roughly hit a peak of $20 after a 711% rally in less than three weeks, aka, before the end of January 31.
XRP Fractal 2017 vs. 2025
While history does provide a good framework, the XRP ETF could be the proper catalyst required to trigger such an exponential rally.
Spot Ripple ETF: A Bullish Catalyst for Ripple
According to Polymarket data, there are two polls regarding a spot Ripple ETF approval. The first one speculates on an XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025 and the other with the same speculation but by the end of 2025.
The latter shows there’s a 70% chance that a spot Ripple ETF will be approved by the end of 2025.
Ripple ETF Approval Odds
Regardless of whether an ETF is approved, let’s look at the short-term outlook of XRP price using technical analysis and forecast key support, resistance levels & potential targets for January 2025.
XRP Technical Analysis & Price Targets
XRP price action over the past five weeks has shown the formation of a bull flag. This technical formation is a bullish continuation setup that has a massive parabolic rally termed as flag pole and the consolidation in a parallel channel that ensues termed as flag.
The target for this setup is obtained by adding the flag’s height to the breakout point. In this case, the flag’s height is 108%, adding this to the breakout point reveals an optimistic target of roughly $4. But adding this measure to the bottom of the flag shows a conservative target of $3.42.
XRP/USDT 1-day chart
Despite XRP showing strength in the past few weeks, if Bitcoin loses key support level of $90,000, it could trigger a sell-off for crypto markets. Hence, investors must keep a close eye on BTC’s price action.
A breakdown of $2 support level for XRP could spell disaster and catalyze a 25% correction to roughly $1.47.
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